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  Syria FUKUSA Analysis


Balkanizing Syria

Posted: 2012-06-24
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Due to the rapidly evolving situation in the Syrian theater of war this weekend of mid June 2012, which follows precisely our predictions from the November-till-February series of reports, we have compiled and re-written that series into a single coherent analysis which can serve as a definitive guide on the Balkanization of Syria into neo-colonial spheres of influence controlled by NATO and the SCO.


Prologue

Given the absence of actual incriminating evidence against Assad's regime, thus the absence of legal grounds against it, thus the absence of political support to act against it, the USA decided to resort to a dispute with its dialectic brethren under the same ESF, i.e. Putin's Russia, to be materialized in tangible form within geographic context of the Syrian sovereign domain. 

30 years after the Hama massacre by Assad the elder, and many hundreds of dead renegades and civilians killed since this mutiny started - in the very same city - by the Syrian army, and the subsequent UN veto of the SCO leaders China and Russia against NATO "humanitarian" intervention, which leads NATO to a unilateral military intervention similar to the Serbian model of 1999 , Russia has decided to protect its naval interests in Syria by means of deploying in Syria Spetsnaz commandos to counter the predictable deployment of GCC \ NATO spec-ops units .

Russian-US naval \ aerial mobilization underway

Russian Marines on route to protect
Russia's naval facility in Tartus, Syria

It seems like Russian Marines have already landed in the Tartus port this weekend  (Mid June 2012), While US forces will probably arrive in the area sooner rather than later.

Russia can operate its upper-end fighter jets from the Russian Caucasus in order to cover the Syrian air space (assuming Russia is willing to violate Caucasian border zones of small rivals like Georgia and Azerbaijan), thus overcoming the hundreds of cruise missile aboard the USN flotilla along the Syrian coastal line which threaten the Syrian air bases. Those Jets are Sukhoi35 as well as MiG-31 - both of which are tough challenges for the Israeli F15 and beyond the US Naval air power. Likewise, Russian Sukhoi-34 for deep penetration. This increases the operational tactical radius and amalgamates the Syrian Airspace with the Russian one. Anticipating such intervention of Russian fighter Jets, the U.S. Can deploy F-22 squadrons in Greece and the UK can deploy Eurofighter Typhoon squadrons in Cyprus.

Theoretically, The USA can also utilize some of the airbases Israel left behind in the Sinai (where the US 82nd division is still deployed as part of the 'peace-keeping' force) , for a safe deployment of additional F22 fighters. This deployment is safe since it is far enough from Russia, i.e. beyond the unrefueled combat range of the Russian fighter Jets, takes advantage of Israeli and USN acute early warning and can be effectively protected from terrestrial threats given the wide expanses of empty desert plains around such airbases


Possible Russian strategy on the ground in Syria


Russian Spetsnaz Commandos


The prospects of the Spetsnaz saving Assad's regime needs be reviewed in historic perspective. On the one hand the Spetsnaz saved the pro-soviet regime in Prague in spring 1968, 12 years after regular Soviet troops saved the pro-soviet regime in Hungary year 1956. On the other hand, 13 years still earlier i.e. years 1943/4, Mussolini's regime was brought down forcibly by the allied armies invading from the sea which surrounds most of Italy, inspite of German reinforcements. Syria, in conjunction with Lebanon which it occupies since year 1976, is surrounded entirely by US dominated territories and by the sea where it outweighs the meager Russian flotilla.


Pantsir S1 Battery in action

The Pantsir-S1 mobile Flak allows the Spetsnaz to detect Helicopters at low level, thus can hunt western commandos ubiquitously. The Pantsir-S1 can also kill every normal type of missile fired at its direction thus is an essential cause for concern to the Israeli Air-Force.
It employs both radar and EO(electro-optics) for detection, tracking targets and fire-control. This level of protection, stacking Spetsnaz reactions over Pantsir-S1 detections, is clearly intended to protect the Syrian nuclear reactors from a similar fate of the one destroyed by Israel on September 6th 2007 during Operation Orchard when the IAF's Sayeret Shaldag (laser designator operators) and the IDF's Sayeret Matkal (well acquainted with Syria) were sent in helicopters to the reactor site before it was attacked.

British SAS Commandos in the Arabian desert

An interesting case is a possible clash between Spetsnaz playing defense and between SAS (British elite commando) sneaking into the country. Since a commando unit sneaking behind enemy lines is very lightweight and very small then the decisive criteria for its effectiveness is keeping stealthy, i.e. even when its people are seen yet are not being conceived for what they really are, but rather for example for innocent civilians. This point is of interest since top elite commando perform not only 'special operations' but also covert operations while dressed like civilians. Once a commando unit or individual is detected, a man hunt is conducted e.g. a pursuing Spetsnaz would enjoy the decisive advantage of wide scale collaboration from the Syrian army and other Russian and Iranian elements in the area. The Spetsnaz would also trap insurgent commando, based on professional assessments which modes of operation would be attempted. The SAS may though enjoy one distinct advantage over the Spetsnaz , which is their long standing experience with deserts and Arabs. 

But then, for similar reasons the best asset in Langley's possession for this job is Al-Qaeda who now assaults the Syrian regime. The classic Russian answer to Al-Qaeda would be a KGB style traffic control regime denying the freedom of travel between districts. Similarly, the Spetsnaz could destabilize Jordan and/or Saudi-Arabia. Since Russia is the only Christian power hosted by a Muslim regime and is a ruthless regime in itself, then in theory it holds the higher ground in Guerrilla warfare.

The role of the Russian flotilla, including the Aircraft carrier, frigate, submarines & naval bases along the Syrian coast are intended to neutralize the Heliborne commando modus operandi applicable to Operation Orchard. Historically, the Spetsnaz were trained to assassinate western pilots in their beds on the eve of a Soviet invasion. Presuming the Israeli Shin Bet will be able to avert this if necessary, this mode of operation may not be of highest concern in the conflict brewing between Israel and Iran and its conjugate-allies Syria and Lebanon.


Will the Israelis be dragged in ?



Israeli special forces

Israel used to have an edge in fighter jets, since its first deliveries of F-4E Phantom II in year 1969. This was augmented with F-15 Eagle since 1976. The Soviet 4gen Jets hardly made it to the scene till the USSR collapsed. These were 48 Mig-29 of an early version, which couldn't outperform the Israeli F15C/D. This balance of power is now changing with the Su-35 & Su-34 having entered Russian front line service and with the Su-50 expected to outperform the F-22 'Rustor' (i.e. the quickly rusting Raptor), and the incumbent flying target designated F-35.

Russian production rate of military aircraft is back to Soviet Levels of about 30 years ago, with 90 fighter and bomber jets + 55 attack and assault helicopters, to delivered this year 2012. With an airframe life expectancy of 40 years, this makes for 3,600 Jets and 2,200 helicopters.
(For a detailed analysis of stealth bombers arms race, see our landmark article the stealth sphere

If Assad collapses in a chaotic manner (i.e. if NATO can not buy the support of rogue Syrian Generals just like it bought republican guards Generals in the 2003 war on Iraq) , Syrian WMD's comprising large quantities of Biological and Chemical warheads and possibly also several crude nuclear devices, might fall in Muslim brotherhood and Hezbollah hands, thus triggering Israeli involvement in the war, in the form of an attempt to avert this volatile proliferation. 
(We made this prediction in February, and the Israelis have indeed announced this weekend that they will intervene to block the transfer of Syrian WMD's to Hezbollah)



Redrawing The Regional Map



Map of the mandate of Syria and Lebanon from 1920
which closely resembles the currently evolving 
NATO \ SCO spheres of influence in the country.
(See also Debkafile's interactive map- 

***

Prologue

It looks like the Russians hope to at least secure their naval assets along the western coast line in case the regime collapses , since Assad himself is currently fortifying an Allawite mountain enclave in the north western Syrian mountains, thus protecting the topographically inferior coastal area from its eastern flank.

This will enable the preservation of the Allawites for later use in history as a divisive force to be reintroduced in to the mix of power struggles. The military threat they face in the near future does not involve massive armored divisions invading from outside, but rather a globalist 'color invasion' of a somewhat similar type to the one currently in the making against Israel, which is comprised of externally fomented political unrest, terrorism and propaganda warfare, all working to destabilize the regime and make it implode under its own weight.

Part I:  The Entente over the Mediterranean

The USA, UK and Russia are old time allies against common enemies since a century ago, when the "Triple Entente", ('Entente' is the a French term reminiscent of "the coalition of the willing"), formed the diplomatic framework for perpetrating WWI, with France the USA and the UK being official partners while implicitly yet effectively also involving Tsarist Russia and later its successor the USSR which was a very close ally of the USA till very late 1945 and a bargain partner behind the scenes thereafter till its demise in 1991, when it became the Russian federation which is a founding Quartet Member together with the USA, the EU and the UN, i.e. has officially joined the western set of Atlantic globalist empires.

It now seems Russia has struck a follow-on deal with the Anglo-American establishment, to limit the extent of western intervention in the Syrian crisis to deterrence only, i.e. allowing the USA to contain the militant acts of Syria to within its own borders under the threat of retaliatory attack the like of 'Desert Fox' in case Syria attacks Israel or Turkey. 'Desert Fox' punished Saddam Hussein for not letting the western observers carry out all their responsibilities, putting an immediate end to Saddam Hussein's resistance.

The Russian-American coordination in the Middle-East dates back to year 1973, when following the Paris convention early that year, which allegedly merely covered the Vietnam war, the USA abandoned Vietnam May 1973 to be immediately brutalized by the Soviet affiliate Vietcong and 5 months later a couple of Soviet clients states Egypt and Syria started a war against Israel, the October 1973 war, by which measure Egypt set its foot in the door towards the diplomatic process which regained it the Sinai and which tightened the noose around Israel's narrow neck with a promise implemented in the form of the PNA. Syria used to be a client state of France, together with its neighbors Lebanon and Iraq. France carved Syria and Lebanon out of the Ottoman Empire and later established the Baath political party in Syria and also in Iraq where the UK was hated too much while the Soviets where making roads in to the public opinion and establishment. France pretended at the time to have been independent from NATO in order to preserve under western guidance former British colonies, mostly in Africa.

It is thus clear that a Russian overtake of Syria doesn't violate the separation lines agreed upon in Yalta between Stalin and Anglo-America and rather allows Russia to preserve under European guidance a former French colony, especially since Russia is now one of the western Atlantic powers.


Part II: Russia is out of Africa and non-Syriac Middle-East

France, the UK and the USA grab all that's left over from Soviet Era around Africa, the Arabian peninsula and the Persian gulf. France regains influence over North-Africa, e.g. Libya, in conjunction with the UK, i.e. consolidating their joint grip over Africa,implying at tremendous economic and security integration,which is one good reason for the UK to jump on the Eurozone wagon,especially when it can secure an excellent conversion rate for the GBP.

The USA strengthens its hold around the red-sea and around the Persian Gulf. UK influence around the Middle-east remains anecdotal under the American Umbrella, with close ties to states it curved out of the Ottoman empire: Cyprus, Jordan, Saudi-Arabia, Oman and the UAE.
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