With recent events in Libya, the world waits to see what will become
of this precarious situation. The possibilities are endless, of course,
however this does not mean that certain probabilities cannot be gauged.
Looking back at the past of Libya's neighbor Egypt, we see what took
place after then president Anwar Sadat signed a peace accord with Israel
in 1976. I specifically recall my father watching footage of the
Egyptian and Israeli leaders hugging and commenting, "Tomorrow, they'll
be kicking themselves!" While dad's timing may have been slightly off,
we all know what took place during the following years: Islamic
fundamentalism rose in power (the Shah of Iran was deposed in 1979 as
just one example) 3), the government of
Egypt was lambasted by Arab people worldwide, Sadat was assassinated
some five years later and his successor was overthrown by mob rule in
2011. Moreover, we need to ask ourselves the question: Is the world a
safer place since 1976? A look at any federal 'terror warnings and/or a
trip to any major airport will certainly put that theory into doubt.
Iraq is another fine example of the fruits of foreign wars. While
many Iraqis under Saddam Hussein certainly did not enjoy a paradise by
any means, they did have a society that was reasonably safe, prosperous
(by middle Eastern standards) and included even standardized national
health care. We ask again: Is the world (or Iraq itself, for that
matter) any safer after the fall of Saddam?
Libya under Col. Qaddafi enjoyed a 10.6% growth in its GNP in 2010. 1) Women enjoyed rights
unheard of in other Muslim nations of the region, education and health
care were freely provided, streets were safe and clean and tribal
conflicts, while not eliminated (nor will they ever be eliminated!) were
at least stifled enough to allow an organized society to function and
endure. Cries of 'political prisoners' and 'repression' ring especially
hollow indeed when they come directly from the nation with the world's
highest per capita prison population!
To return to the title of this essay, if I may make a prediction on the future of a Libya without Col. Qaddafi's
ruling hand, it would be as such: The NATO backed 'rebels' will seize
the nation in its entirety and form a 'coalition government' that will
immediately extend a hand of friendship (i.e., become a puppet state of)
the U.S. and Great Britain. 2) Capitalism
and the so called 'free market system' will be implemented post haste
and with it will come the 'benefits' we are currently enjoying in the
'land of the free', such as high unemployment, inflation and an influx
of cheap (and cheaply made!) goods. The 'rebel' leaders will drop their
veneer of being of the people and will claim a position of indulgent,
capitalistic luxury reserved for themselves alone while the masses of
Libya will struggle with rising prices and shrinking incomes.
Most of all, Libya's vast oil reserves will be plundered by the
transnational corporations of the U.S. and England and perpetual excuses
for keeping the price of gasoline high ('bad weather', 'political
instability', 'no Santa Claus', ad nauseum) will be the only aspect of
life to 'flourish' in this once great nation.
To be sure, there will be those who see this article as nothing short
of a propped up defense of a 'bloodthirsty dictator who killed innocent
people.' This is all well and good, although the specter of hypocrisy
does rise when we remember that it was the U.S. who bombed Libya in 1986
and killed the then infant (adopted) daughter of Col Qaddafi.
Think of this article and its author as you will. History will judge my
predictions and render the only verdict that matters. Until then, I
invite the reader to view these webpages.
In 1951, on the eve of independence, Libya, underdeveloped and
backward, was characterized by the United Nations (UN) as perhaps the
world's poorest country. However, in less than 25 years, Libya had
turned into a rapidly developing country with accumulated net gold and
foreign-exchange reserves equivalent to upward of US$4 billion and an
estimated annual income from oil revenues of between US$6 and US$8
billion.
See: The Truth About the Situation in Libya
John Green
Notes:
1) Feb. 21, BBC News
-- "Before the unrest began, the country's economy was enjoying a boom.
The International Monetary Fund reckons Libya saw growth of 10.6% last
year and had projected a growth rate of 6.2% for 2011."
2) Sept. 15 (Bloomberg)
-- U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron and French President Nicolas
Sarkozy pledged more aid for Libya's new rulers as they became the first
foreign leaders to visit Tripoli since it's "fall". The French and
British leaders were pivotal figures in mobilizing international backing
for the Libyan rebels.
3) Sept. 15 (CSMonitor)
-- The most respected politician in Libya, Ali Sallabi, is an Islamist.
The most powerful military leader, Abdel Hakim Belhadj, is an Islamist.
And Tripoli's Municipal Council is dominated by members of the Muslim
Brotherhood.
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